Insight & Portfolio Changes From Nathan's "Lab"
Well that was exciting!
Specific equity indices had intraday swings of 3.5% - 4% and CNBC didn’t even run a “Markets in Turmoil” special (or maybe I just stopped paying attention). It’s almost like we’ve become conditioned to increasing volatility.
Recent market weakness was mostly related to an increase in yields. Rate sensitive stocks (growth stocks, tech stocks, YOLO parabolic names, utilities, staples) all experienced heightened volatility as the market shifted from a deflationary, lower for longer interest rate environment to an inflationary, rates will rise because of fiscal stimulus expectation.
While it’s probably premature to think that yields will return to pre-covid levels (real unemployment is at 10% according to Secretary Yellen), the market has moved in anticipation of a return to normal environment. Considering that the FOMC board has said they don’t want to bring rates negative in the U.S., there really aren’t too many places for rates to go other than up.
That said inflation happens slowly, then all at once. It takes time for inflation to accumulate within the system and while we are seeing those signs now it’s unrealistic to think we’re going straight into 4-5% CPI.
With the inflation expectation on the horizon, we’ve shifted some of the fixed income holdings in our portfolios away from longer duration bond ETFs, and purely passively managed bond ETFs, toward some actively managed bond funds, shorter duration bond funds, and some other holdings (think commodities and currencies) that are expected to track with a falling U.S. dollar and rising inflation, albeit slowly rising). As the next (expected) rounds of fiscal stimulus hit the system in the spring we’ll likely continue to adjust to this new influx of cash into the goods economy, vs. where the cash has been residing within asset markets. It’s reasonable to think that as inflation continues to creep higher investors will continue to shift preferences within equity markets.
-Nathan